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Modeling motorcycle crash frequency on rural multilane segments in Kentucky.
Bharat Kumar Pathivada1, Arunabha Banerjee1, Kirolos Haleem1
1Center for Transportation Research (CTR), School of Engineering & Applied Sciences, Western Kentucky University, 1906 College Heights Blvd, EBS 2122, Bowling Green, KY 42101, United States.
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|May 7, 2025
Summary
Motorcycle safety performance functions (SPFs) were developed for rural Kentucky roads, comparing pre- and post-pandemic crash data. Findings reveal factors like curves and shoulder width influence crash risk, informing targeted safety improvements.
Area of Science:
- Traffic Safety Engineering
- Transportation Planning
- Accident Analysis
Background:
- Motorcycle crashes represent a significant portion of U.S. traffic fatalities, yet research on their frequency is limited.
- Developing specific safety performance functions (SPFs) is crucial for understanding and mitigating motorcycle crash risks on rural roads.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop motorcycle crash-specific safety performance functions (SPFs) for rural multilane road segments in Kentucky.
- To analyze crash frequency changes between the pre-COVID-19 pandemic (2015-2019) and post-COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022) periods.
- To identify key road characteristics influencing motorcycle crash frequency.
Main Methods:
- Collected eight years of motorcycle crash data (2015-2022) and site-specific characteristics.
- Fitted and compared Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) and heterogeneous Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (HTCMP) models, accounting for under-dispersion.
- Evaluated models using goodness-of-fit and prediction performance measures.
Main Results:
- Heterogeneous Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (HTCMP) models demonstrated superior performance over CMP models for both periods.
- Pre-pandemic: Horizontal curves and undivided roadways increased motorcycle crash frequency.
- Post-pandemic: Wider right shoulders and higher annual average daily traffic (AADT) were associated with increased motorcycle crash frequency.
Conclusions:
- The developed SPFs effectively identify high-crash rural multilane segments in Kentucky.
- Countermeasures such as centerline grooved rumble strips on undivided roadways are recommended.
- Findings provide a data-driven basis for enhancing motorcyclist safety on rural multilane roads.
Keywords:
COVID-19 PandemicHeterogeneous Conway-Maxwell-PoissonMotorcycle CrashesMultilane SegmentsRuralMore Related Videos
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