Mosquito and global dengue cases in a warming world

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Epidemiology
• Public health

Background:

• Dengue fever is a major global health issue, with 50-100 million symptomatic infections annually.
• Climate change impacts vector-borne diseases, but future dengue projections are uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess climate change and socioeconomic impacts on mosquito distribution and dengue incidence.
• To project future global dengue incidence rates and infections using advanced modeling techniques.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.
• Analyzed historical Aedes mosquito and dengue records (1960-2019).
• Projected future incidence under various climate and socioeconomic scenarios at 5km resolution.

Main Results:

• Significant geographical expansion of Aedes mosquitoes and dengue predicted in higher latitudes (North America, Europe).
• Estimated 77 million annual dengue infections by 2041-2060 (SSP2-4.5), a 57% increase from 2000-2019.
• Rising temperatures, increased Aedes aegypti suitability, and population growth drive infection increases.

Conclusions:

• High-resolution projections support targeted local dengue control measures.
• Aedes mosquito control programs, including eliminating breeding sites, are crucial, particularly in Africa and South Asia.