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Two Hypotheses About Climate Change and Species Distributions.

John M Drake1,2, John P Wares1,2,3, James E Byers1,2

  • 1Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.

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Global climate change is altering species distributions. This study introduces two hypotheses on how environmental variability, not just average conditions, impacts species

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Area of Science:

  • Macroecology and Biogeography
  • Climate Change Ecology
  • Environmental Variability Studies

Background:

  • Global climate change is driving significant shifts in species distributions worldwide.
  • Current research primarily examines changes in mean climate conditions, neglecting the impact of increased environmental variability.
  • Understanding species' responses to environmental variability is crucial for predicting future biogeographic patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose two novel macroecological hypotheses: the variability damping hypothesis and the variability adaptation hypothesis.
  • To explore how ecological dynamics and evolutionary history influence species' responses to climate-driven environmental variability.
  • To provide a framework for understanding and testing the effects of environmental variability on species distributions across ecosystems.

Main Methods:

  • Formulation of two competing macroecological hypotheses regarding species' responses to environmental variability.
  • Discussion of existing evidence in relation to the proposed hypotheses.
  • Proposal of empirical testing strategies for the hypotheses.

Main Results:

  • The variability damping hypothesis predicts less impact from temperature variability on deep-water species compared to nearshore, intertidal, and terrestrial species.
  • The variability adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite trend, suggesting greater impact on deep-water species.
  • The paper outlines how current data can be used to evaluate these contrasting predictions.

Conclusions:

  • Two new hypotheses offer contrasting predictions for how species distributions will respond to increasing climate-driven environmental variability.
  • The hypotheses highlight the importance of considering both ecological dynamics and evolutionary history in macroecological studies.
  • Further empirical testing is needed to determine whether species distributions are dampened or adapted to environmental variability under climate change.