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Two Hypotheses About Climate Change and Species Distributions
John M Drake1,2, John P Wares1,2,3, James E Byers1,2
1Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
Ecology Letters
|May 9, 2025
Summary
Global climate change is altering species distributions. This study introduces two hypotheses on how environmental variability, not just average conditions, impacts species
Area of Science:
- Macroecology and Biogeography
- Climate Change Ecology
- Environmental Variability Studies
Background:
- Global climate change is driving significant shifts in species distributions worldwide.
- Current research primarily examines changes in mean climate conditions, neglecting the impact of increased environmental variability.
- Understanding species' responses to environmental variability is crucial for predicting future biogeographic patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose two novel macroecological hypotheses: the variability damping hypothesis and the variability adaptation hypothesis.
- To explore how ecological dynamics and evolutionary history influence species' responses to climate-driven environmental variability.
- To provide a framework for understanding and testing the effects of environmental variability on species distributions across ecosystems.
Main Methods:
- Formulation of two competing macroecological hypotheses regarding species' responses to environmental variability.
- Discussion of existing evidence in relation to the proposed hypotheses.
- Proposal of empirical testing strategies for the hypotheses.
Main Results:
- The variability damping hypothesis predicts less impact from temperature variability on deep-water species compared to nearshore, intertidal, and terrestrial species.
- The variability adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite trend, suggesting greater impact on deep-water species.
- The paper outlines how current data can be used to evaluate these contrasting predictions.
Conclusions:
- Two new hypotheses offer contrasting predictions for how species distributions will respond to increasing climate-driven environmental variability.
- The hypotheses highlight the importance of considering both ecological dynamics and evolutionary history in macroecological studies.
- Further empirical testing is needed to determine whether species distributions are dampened or adapted to environmental variability under climate change.
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