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Forecasting CO2 emissions in BRICS countries using the grey breakpoint prediction models.

Huiping Wang1, Xinge Guo2

  • 1Western Collaborative Innovation Research Center for Energy Economy and Regional Development, Xi'an University of Finance and Economics, Xi'an, 710100, China. wanghuiping@xaufe.edu.cn.

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Summary

This study introduces new grey breakpoint prediction models to accurately forecast CO2 emissions in BRICS nations. The models successfully identify system changes and improve prediction accuracy for carbon dioxide levels.

Keywords:
CO2 emissionsGrey breakpoint prediction modelParticle swarm optimisationTime response function

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Modeling
  • Econometrics

Background:

  • Accurate forecasting of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is crucial for climate change mitigation strategies.
  • Existing grey prediction models may lack the precision to capture abrupt changes in emission trends.
  • The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations represent significant global emitters with diverse emission trajectories.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate novel grey breakpoint prediction models for enhanced CO2 emission forecasting.
  • To improve the accuracy and applicability of grey models in capturing system dynamics and abrupt changes.
  • To project future CO2 emission trends for individual BRICS countries.

Main Methods:

  • Development of three novel grey breakpoint prediction models incorporating fuzzy breakpoints.
  • Unification of parameter estimation and time-response equation calculations.
  • Optimization of two-stage background values using particle swarm optimization algorithm.
  • Application of the models to simulate and forecast CO2 emissions in BRICS countries.

Main Results:

  • The novel grey breakpoint prediction models successfully detected abrupt changes and improved prediction accuracy for CO2 emissions.
  • All models demonstrated superior estimation performance in CO2 emissions forecasting across BRICS nations.
  • Projections indicate decreasing CO2 emissions in Brazil and South Africa, and increasing emissions in China, Russia, and India between 2022-2025, with a slowing trend in India.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed grey breakpoint prediction models offer enhanced accuracy and applicability for time-series forecasting, particularly for systems with abrupt changes.
  • These models provide valuable insights into future CO2 emission trends for key emerging economies.
  • The findings support targeted climate change mitigation and policy development for BRICS countries.