Gender Difference in the Trend and Forecast Analysis of Changes in the Burden of Disease of Pancreatic Cancer Attributable to Smoking in China, 1990-2021
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Smoking significantly increases the burden of pancreatic cancer in China, with rising mortality and disability rates, especially among elderly males. Urgent smoking cessation interventions are crucial to mitigate this growing public health challenge.
Area Of Science
- Oncology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background
- Pancreatic cancer is a highly aggressive malignancy with a poor prognosis.
- Smoking is a primary risk factor contributing to pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality.
- Understanding smoking-attributable pancreatic cancer burden is critical for public health strategies.
Purpose Of The Study
- To analyze trends in pancreatic cancer burden attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2021.
- To forecast future trends in smoking-related pancreatic cancer burden over the next 15 years.
- To identify demographic disparities and inform targeted interventions.
Main Methods
- Utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database for 447,334 individuals.
- Employed joinpoint regression to assess trends (APC, AAPC) from 1990-2021.
- Applied age-period-cohort and ARIMA models for trend explanation and forecasting.
Main Results
- Age-standardized mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) rates for smoking-related pancreatic cancer showed an upward trend (1990-2021).
- Total deaths and DALYs nearly doubled by 2021; burden increases with age, peaking in the elderly.
- Male ASMR and ASDR continue to rise, while female rates may decline but absolute burden remains high.
Conclusions
- The burden of smoking-attributable pancreatic cancer in China has intensified, with significant sex and age disparities.
- Future projections indicate a severe outlook due to population aging and size.
- Targeted smoking cessation programs, especially for elderly males, are essential to reduce tobacco exposure and disease burden.
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