Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 14, 2025

Implementation of a Real-Time Psychosis Risk Detection and Alerting System Based on Electronic Health Records using CogStack
Published on: May 15, 2020
Predicting the Number of Consultations by Emergency Medical Teams During Disasters Using a Constant Attenuation
Takahito Yoshida1, Tomohito Hayashi1, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir1
1Department of Public Health and Health Policy, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima City, Hiroshima 734-0037, Japan.
Introduction:
Predicting the number of emergency medical team (EMT) consultations that are needed following a natural or man-made disaster can help improve decisions regarding the dispatch and withdrawal of these teams. This study aimed to predict the number of consultations by EMTs using the K value and constant attenuation model.
Methods:
Data were collected using the Japan-Surveillance in Post-Extreme Emergencies and Disasters (J-SPEED) and Minimum Data Set (MDS) for five disasters in Japan and one disaster in Mozambique. We compared the number of consultations, which was predicted based on K value and constant attenuation model with actual data collected with J-SPEED/Minimum Data Set (MDS) tools.
Results:
The total number of EMT consultations per disaster ranged from 684 to 18,468. The predicted curve and actual K data were similar for each of the disasters (R2 from 0.953 to 0.997), but offset adjustments were needed for the Kumamoto earthquake and the Mozambique cyclone because their R2 values were below 0.985. For the six disasters, the difference between the number of consultations predicted based on K values and the measured cumulative number of consultations ranged from ±1.0% to ± 4.1%.
Conclusions:
The K value and constant attenuation model, although originally developed to predict the number of patients with COVID-19, provided reliable predictions of the number of EMT consultations required during six different disasters. This simple model may be useful for the coordination of future responses of EMTs during disasters.
Related Concept Videos
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Censoring Survival Data
Hazard Rate
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...

