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COVID-19 severity and vaccine effectiveness in Malawi: A test-negative case-control study
Clara Sambani1, Victor Chikwapulo2, Regina Mankhamba1
1Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi.
Journal of Public Health in Africa
|May 13, 2025
Summary
COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Malawi was low, with only a 10% to 31.8% reduction in risk. Severe disease was linked to chronic illnesses and prior infections, not vaccination status.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Vaccinology
Background:
- Malawi initiated COVID-19 vaccination on March 11, 2021.
- Global administration of COVID-19 vaccines has been widespread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in Malawi.
- To identify factors associated with COVID-19 disease severity and mortality.
Main Methods:
- A facility-based case-control study was conducted in Malawi's largest referral hospitals.
- Conditional logistic regression was used to determine vaccine effectiveness (VE), while binary logistic regression analyzed disease severity.
- Interviews collected data on vaccination status, underlying conditions, and outcomes.
Main Results:
- Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was low: 10% for fully vaccinated and 31.8% for partially vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated.
- Underlying chronic conditions and prior COVID-19 infection were associated with severe disease (aOR: 3.54 and 2.73, respectively).
- Vaccination status did not significantly alter the odds of severe disease.
Conclusions:
- Low vaccine effectiveness (VE) was observed in Malawi.
- Chronic illnesses and previous COVID-19 infection are key factors for severe disease.
- Enhanced vaccination promotion and education are recommended, especially for individuals with chronic conditions.

