The Diffusion of Late Fertility Across European Regions (2006-2018)

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Demography
• Geography

Background:

• Late fertility is a growing trend in high-income nations, but its geographic spread is uneven.
• Socioeconomic factors are traditionally cited as the primary drivers of this trend.
• Previous research has not fully explored the role of spatial diffusion in fertility patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the role of spatial diffusion processes in the rise of late fertility across European regions.
• To assess whether regional late fertility trends are influenced by the behavior of geographically proximate regions.
• To determine if spatial diffusion contributes to late fertility rates independently of socioeconomic factors.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a comprehensive panel dataset of 193 regions across 18 European countries.
• Employed a dynamic spatial Durbin model to analyze temporal and spatial interdependencies.
• Controlled for key socioeconomic factors like educational tertiarization and labor market changes.

Main Results:

• A significant association was found between geographic proximity and the rise in late fertility rates.
• Spatial diffusion processes were identified as a contributing factor to late fertility trends, even after accounting for socioeconomic variables.
• The study highlights the interconnectedness of European regions in shaping fertility behaviors.

Conclusions:

• Diffusion processes play a significant role in the spread of late fertility across Europe.
• Geographic proximity influences fertility trends, indicating a spatial component to demographic changes.
• Future fertility trends in Europe will likely continue to be shaped by these diffusion dynamics.