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Clinical Outcome Prediction Model in Tetralogy of Fallot Without Pulmonary Valve Replacement Using Contraction
Mark A Fogel1,2, Jennifer A Faerber3, Abdullah Mahmood1
1Division of Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia/The Perelman School of Medicine at The University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine 3401 Civic Center Blvd Philadelphia 19104 PA USA.
Journal of the American Heart Association
|May 13, 2025
Summary
Right ventricular contraction fraction predicts clinical outcomes in repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF) patients. This novel metric may improve risk stratification for adverse events in rTOF.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Cardiac Imaging
- Congenital Heart Disease
Background:
- Limited prediction models exist for clinical outcomes in repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF).
- Novel myocardial efficiency metrics like contraction fraction have not been studied in rTOF.
- Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is a key imaging modality for rTOF assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a prediction model for clinical outcomes in rTOF using CMR parameters.
- To explore the utility of novel metrics, specifically right ventricular (RV) contraction fraction, in rTOF.
- To identify predictors of adverse events in a large cohort of rTOF patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of CMR parameters from 761 rTOF patients (2005-2021).
- Development of composite outcomes (CO1 and CO2) including death, transplantation, arrhythmias, and hospitalizations.
- Utilized elastic net and best subsets logistic regression to identify significant predictors.
Main Results:
- RV contraction fraction was the most significant predictor for both composite outcomes (CO1 AUC 0.72, CO2 AUC 0.69).
- Lower RV contraction fraction was associated with increased risk of adverse events (P<0.01).
- Additional predictors included indexed RV mass/volume, left ventricular ejection fraction, global function index, and mass.
Conclusions:
- RV contraction fraction shows promise as a novel biomarker for risk stratification in rTOF.
- Both right and left ventricular measures are important for monitoring rTOF patients.
- Improved risk stratification can guide clinical management and follow-up strategies for rTOF.

