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Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
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Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Predicting Early Recurrence of Gallbladder Cancer Using

Hyun Jeong Jeon1, So Kyung Yoon2, Boram Park3,4

  • 1Division of Hepatobiliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kyungpook National University Chilgok Hospital, Kyungpook National University School of Medicine, Daegu 41404, Republic of Korea.

Cancers
|May 14, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Predicting early gallbladder cancer recurrence is crucial. This study identified preoperative factors like male sex and elevated CEA to build a nomogram, aiding risk assessment for patients undergoing surgery.

Keywords:
cholecystectomygallbladder cancernomogramrecurrence

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Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Surgical Oncology
  • Predictive Modeling

Background:

  • Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is an aggressive malignancy with high recurrence rates post-surgery.
  • Early recurrence (within one year) is a significant clinical challenge.
  • Identifying preoperative prognostic factors is essential for patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify preoperative prognostic factors for early recurrence in resected GBC.
  • To develop and validate a predictive model (nomogram) for early GBC recurrence.
  • To improve risk stratification and shared decision-making for GBC patients.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 251 GBC patients undergoing curative resection (2008-2017).
  • Logistic regression to identify preoperative predictors of early recurrence.
  • External validation of the developed nomogram using an independent cohort of 176 patients.

Main Results:

  • Key predictors of early recurrence included male sex, chronic liver disease, preoperative symptoms, elevated CEA, sarcopenic obesity, advanced T stage (T3+), and suspected lymph node metastasis.
  • The nomogram showed strong predictive performance: AUC 0.872 (internal) and 0.703 (external validation).

Conclusions:

  • A novel, externally validated nomogram accurately predicts early GBC recurrence using preoperative factors.
  • This tool can enhance individualized risk assessment for GBC patients.
  • The nomogram facilitates informed shared decision-making between surgeons and patients before surgery.