Estimating Power Plant Contributions to Surface Pollution in a Wintertime Arctic Environment

Arctic winter meteorology and orography in the Fairbanks North Star Borough (FNSB, interior Alaska) promote stably stratified boundary layers, often causing acute pollution episodes that exceed the US-EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Power plant emission contributions to breathing level (0-10 m) pollution are estimated over the FNSB using high-resolution Lagrangian tracer simulations run with temporally varying emissions and power plant plume rise accounting for atmospheric boundary layer stability and validated against comprehensive ALPACA-2022 observations. Average relative power plant contributions of 5-23% and 4-28% are diagnosed for SO₂ and NO , respectively, with lower relative contributions in polluted conditions due to larger surface emissions. Highest population-weighted contributions are found in central and eastern (residential) areas of Fairbanks. Significant temporal variability in power plant contributions is revealed, depending on power plant operations and Arctic boundary layer stability. Vertical transport of power plant tracers to the surface depends on the interplay between the presence of temperature inversion layers and power plant stack heights as well as prevailing large-scale or local winds. Notably, power plant emissions can be transported to the surface even under strongly stable conditions, especially from shorter stacks, whereas down mixing from tall stacks mainly occurs under weakly stable conditions.