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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
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Nomogram for Predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-Year Survival in Hemodynamically Significant Aortic Regurgitation: The ARISE
Kang Liu1, Meng-Han Tsai1, Wei-Jyun Wang1
1Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiovascular Center National Taiwan University Hospital Taipei Taiwan.
Journal of the American Heart Association
|May 15, 2025
Summary
A new Aortic Regurgitation/Insufficiency Survival Estimation (ARISE) score predicts survival in patients with aortic regurgitation. This tool helps identify high-risk individuals for timely aortic valve surgery, improving patient care.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Clinical Prognostics
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- A user-friendly tool for estimating prognosis in aortic regurgitation is currently lacking.
- Key clinical variables need integration for accurate patient risk stratification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a nomogram-based score for predicting survival in patients with aortic regurgitation.
- To identify high-risk patients who may benefit from timely aortic valve surgery referral.
Main Methods:
- Development and validation of the Aortic Regurgitation/Insufficiency Survival Estimation (ARISE) score using data from 1229 patients (Taiwanese and Japanese).
- Multivariable analysis identified predictors of all-cause death, including age, comorbidities, functional class, and echocardiographic parameters.
- Nomogram construction incorporated key variables to estimate 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival.
Main Results:
- The ARISE score demonstrated good predictive performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 in the validation dataset.
- Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant survival differences among risk groups stratified by the ARISE score.
- Key predictors of mortality included age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, NYHA class IV, LVEF, and LVESDI.
Conclusions:
- The ARISE score effectively predicts survival in patients with aortic regurgitation.
- The score incorporates guideline-recommended parameters and facilitates shared decision-making.
- This tool can aid clinicians in managing patients with aortic regurgitation.
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