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Hurricane Ida's blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate
Kairui Feng1,2,3, Ning Lin4, Avantika Gori1,5
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Nature Communications
|May 15, 2025
Summary
Climate change significantly increases the risk of compound tropical cyclone (TC) and heatwave events causing widespread power outages. Louisiana faces a 17-fold increase in such risks by 2100 under a high emissions scenario.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Compound risks from tropical cyclones (TCs), blackouts, and heatwaves are poorly understood under climate change.
- Louisiana, US, is vulnerable to these interconnected extreme weather events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate historical and future compound TC-blackout-heatwave risk in Louisiana.
- To project changes in risk under different climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5).
Main Methods:
- Utilized projections of TCs, sea level rise, and heatwaves.
- Employed power system resilience modeling to assess compound risk.
- Analyzed the return period of events comparable to Hurricane Ida.
Main Results:
- The return period for a Hurricane Ida-like event (35 million customer hours of outage and heatwave exposure) is projected to decrease from 278 years (1980-2005) to 16.2 years (2070-2100) under SSP5-8.5.
- Under SSP2-4.5, the return period decreases to 23.1 years.
- Heatwave intensification is the primary driver, followed by increased TC activity.
Conclusions:
- Climate change substantially elevates the risk of TC-blackout-heatwave compound events.
- Findings highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to enhance power system resilience.
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