Do ethnically diverse societies amplify the ecological footprint? Exploring the mediating role of human development

The growing ecological footprint poses a critical challenge to global ecosystems and biodiversity, necessitating a deeper focus on its underlying drivers. Among these, ethnic diversity remains an underexplored factor. Achieving sustainable development requires balancing current welfare improvements with environmental preservation, as emphasized in Sustainable Development Goals 10, 12, and 13. This study contributes to the discourse by empirically examining the relationship between ethnic diversity and the ecological footprint, highlighting the potential mediating role of human development, using global data from 188 countries spanning 1996-2020. We employ two main econometric models: a pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) approach and an endogeneity-corrected instrumental variable (IV) estimation, both utilizing Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. The results reveal a significant positive influence of ethnic diversity on the ecological footprint. This relationship holds across different quantiles, as demonstrated by the panel quantile regression analysis. Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that ethnic diversity increases the ecological footprint in middle- and low-income countries, with a larger effect in low-income countries, while no significant effect is observed in high-income countries. Furthermore, countries with higher levels of ethnic fractionalization show a greater ecological footprint than those with lower levels of ethnic fractionalization. Our mechanism analysis suggests that ethnic diversity adversely affects human development, which in turn escalates the ecological footprint. These findings emphasize the need to consider ethnic diversity in environmental conservation efforts.