Alcohol sales changes in a Canadian province after recreational cannabis legalization

Cannabis legalization's impacts partly depend on how it affects use of other substances like alcohol. This observational study analyzed alcohol sales in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia, where some government-owned stores sold both cannabis and alcohol.

The study compared monthly alcoholic beverage sales in Canadian dollars at Nova Scotia liquor stores during 17 months before cannabis legalization and 17 months afterward, i.e., May 2017 to February 2020. Comparative interrupted time series models of aggregate sales contrasted stores that kept selling only alcohol versus those that also began selling cannabis.

Post-legalization alcohol sales by alcohol-only stores and cannabis-selling stores had significantly different initial responses, ongoing trends, and 17-month averages. Cannabis sellers saw initial increases of 0.55 % followed by monthly growth of 0.29 %, whereas alcohol-only stores saw initial decreases of 2.91 % followed by monthly growth of 0.06 %. Post-legalization alcohol sales consequently averaged 3.1 % above pre-legalization levels at cannabis sellers but 2.4 % below at alcohol-only stores; combined sales were 1.2 % below. Differences were larger for beers than for spirits or wines. Results were similar when considering similarly sized stores, stores' proximity to cannabis sellers, and alternative model specifications.

Nova Scotia's alcohol sales declined slightly after cannabis legalization, while changes at alcohol-only stores differed from those at stores also selling cannabis. The changes were consistent with government-owned cannabis retailing only marginally affecting consumers' alcohol purchasing, apparently triggering some substitution and co-use.