Combined intervention: Structural-efficiency-intensity indicators can halve nitrogen-related resource-environmental...

The rapid increase in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen poses significant ecological and environmental risks. However, current research lacks a systematic exploration of the full urban nitrogen flow cycle, and socioeconomic drivers remain inadequately linked to key nitrogen cycle processes, limiting the development of targeted regulatory strategies for sustainable nitrogen management. To address these gaps, this study simulated the nitrogen flow process in Beijing using material flow analysis, selected two indicators of nitrogen consumption and nitrogen footprint based on the nitrogen flow process, and identified the influencing factors and future development trend by using logarithmic mean divisia index and scenario simulation methods, with the goal of establishing a balanced and sustainable urban nitrogen regulation. Results indicated that nitrogen consumption increased by 5.1 %, while the nitrogen footprint increased more than fivefold from 1979 to 2022. Key driving factors were identified: economic growth, industrial structure, and residential consumption acted as primary accelerators, whereas advancements in production technology and nitrogen utilization efficiency served as inhibitors. Further analysis of regulatory measures revealed that combined intervention: structural-efficiency-intensity indicators is the most effective strategy for mitigating nitrogen-related environmental impacts, achieving a reduction of over 50 % by 2050.