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Updated: May 21, 2025

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat
Published on: September 12, 2014
Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment
Casey Helgeson1, Richard Bradley2, Brian Hill3
1Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 2217 Earth and Engineering Sciences Building, University Park, PA 16802 USA.
Abstract:
Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.
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