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Predicting mortality risk using the PREVENT equation across diverse racial groups

Ofer Kobo, Martin K Rutter, Shivani Misra

  • 1Keele Cardiovascular Research Group, Centre for Prognosis Research, Keele University, David Weatherall Building, Keele, Staffordshire ST5 5BG, United Kingdom.

The American Journal of Managed Care
|May 19, 2025
PubMed

Insights

The PREVENT score accurately predicts cardiovascular risk and mortality across diverse racial and ethnic groups. This tool effectively identifies high-risk individuals, improving cardiovascular disease risk assessment for all populations.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiovascular epidemiology
  • Public health
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • The PREVENT score is a modern cardiovascular risk assessment tool that excludes race, prompting concerns about its equitable performance.
  • Validating risk prediction models across diverse populations is crucial for equitable healthcare.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To validate the PREVENT cardiovascular risk equation across diverse racial and ethnic groups.
  • To assess the association between PREVENT-estimated cardiovascular risk and long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Main Methods:

  • An observational cohort study utilized nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) linked with mortality data (2009-2018).
  • A cohort of over 177 million US adults was analyzed, stratified by race and ethnicity.
  • Cox proportional hazards models assessed the relationship between baseline cardiovascular risk and mortality.

Main Results:

  • Significant variations in baseline cardiovascular risk were observed across racial and ethnic groups.
  • Higher estimated cardiovascular risk was consistently associated with increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates.
  • Individuals at high risk had a 6-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality and a 9-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to low-risk individuals.

Conclusions:

  • The PREVENT score demonstrates validated performance across diverse racial and ethnic populations.
  • The tool effectively predicts cardiovascular risk and mortality irrespective of race or ethnicity.
  • Findings support the use of the PREVENT score for equitable cardiovascular risk assessment.
Abstract

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