Forecasting the future distribution of Zataria multiflora in Iran affected by climate change: a MaxEnt approach

Climate change, driven by both natural and human influences, presents serious threats to biodiversity and the distribution of species over the coming decades. To examine the effects of climate change on species distribution and habitat suitability, researchers have widely used species distribution models (SDMs). This study specifically investigated Zataria multiflora, a valuable medicinal plant found in Iranian rangelands. The aim was to identify the critical factors influencing the distribution of Z. multiflora and assess how climate change may affect its range. We utilized the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), incorporating eight environmental variables: maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, depth to bedrock, slope, and solar radiation. The results indicated that solar radiation, slope, precipitation during the warmest quarter (bio17), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5) were the most significant factors affecting the species' distribution. Projections suggest a potential decrease in the species' range by 43.98%, 51.60%, 54.20%, and 68.10% under representative concentration pathways 4.5-2050, 8.5-2050, 4.5-2070, and 8.5-2070, respectively. These insights can assist decision-makers in developing effective conservation strategies to protect and sustainably manage Z. multiflora in light of global climate change. Given the expected habitat loss, in situ conservation efforts should be prioritized for the protection of Z. multiflora.