Spatial and temporal distribution and evolutionary trend of thyroid cancer incidence in Guangzhou, 2010-2020

The spatial and temporal distribution of thyroid cancer in Guangzhou was studied using spatial information system technology, offering a scientific foundation for successful thyroid cancer prevention and treatment.

The Joinpoint model was used to assess the incidence rate of thyroid cancer over time in various regions. Hierarchical maps were created with the ArcGIS software to investigate the spatial distribution features of the incidence rate. Spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scanning analysis methods were used to assess geographical clustering. Standard deviation ellipse analysis was used to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of incidence.

The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 6.46/10⁵ in 2010 to 33.15/10⁵ in 2020, showing a nearly five-fold increase. The ASIR of urban regions was highest, but the growth rates of suburban regions and rural regions were faster than that of urban regions, and the regional disparity was gradually narrowing. The spatial distribution of thyroid cancer incidence has significant spatial heterogeneity and clustering. The hotspots clustered in the urban regions, Panyu and Nansha districts in the south, Huadu district in the north, and Zengcheng district in the east. The spatiotemporal evolution trends showed that since 2010, the incidence rate first migrated to the south-west, and then migrated to the north-east from 2015.

Significant heterogeneity and clustering were seen in the spatial distribution of the thyroid cancer incidence rate in Guangzhou, and the regional disparity decreased. The direction of evolution consistent with Guangzhou's "Southern Expansion, Northern Enhancement, Eastern Advancement, Western Integration and Central Revitalization" spatial development policy.