[Carbon Peaking Pathways in the Field of Energy Activities in Shanxi Province Based on the LEAP model]

Under the background of the "dual carbon" goal, Shanxi Province must crucially simulate the carbon peak path of energy activities in Shanxi Province and carry out provincial-level emission reduction measures and policy research, which is in the stage of evolution of resource-based economy. Taking the carbon emissions of energy activities in Shanxi Province as the accounting scope, the LEAP model was established in 2020 as the base year and on this basis, the carbon emissions of Shanxi Province were simulated and calculated to 2060 and its dynamic evolution trend over the next 40 years was simulated. Under the baseline scenario, Shanxi Province may find it difficult to peak carbon emissions before 2030. Under the synchronous peak scenario, the total energy consumption （in terms of standard coal） may be 411.26 million tons in 2030 and the carbon emissions （in terms of CO₂） may reach the peak of carbon emissions and under the leading peak scenario, the carbon peak time will be advanced to 2028, when the total energy consumption is expected to be 399.03 million tons, and carbon emissions will reach 675.22 million tons. In addition, under the baseline scenario, achieving the goal of peaking energy intensity per unit of GDP and carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP as scheduled will be difficult； however, measures, such as adopting more energy-efficient equipment and technologies, actively promoting the development of renewable energy, and reducing dependence on fossil fuels can effectively reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. In both the simultaneous and leading peak scenarios, the binding targets set in the 14th Five-Year Plan can be successfully achieved, demonstrating that Shanxi Province has the ability and potential to achieve the set goals on the road of actively responding to climate change and promoting green development. To achieve this goal, Shanxi Province needs to further strengthen policy guidance and market mechanism construction, encourage enterprises, and all sectors of society to actively participate in the process of energy consumption and transformation. In particular, investment and research and development in renewable energy must be increased； the innovation and application of clean energy technologies, promoted； and the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body, accelerated. Simultaneously, strengthening the optimization and adjustment of the energy consumption structure and promoting the transformation of energy consumption to a green and low-carbon direction are necessary.