[Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Dynamics in Typical Lake Basins of China]

Monitoring vegetation dynamics and isolating as well as quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover changes are crucial for providing theoretical support for maintaining regional ecological balance and scientifically planning ecological restoration. This study focuses on the Dongting, Poyang, and Taihu Lake basins. Using multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） data, meteorological data, and land use data and employing methods, such as trend analysis, first-order difference multiple regression analysis, and residual analysis, this research investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of vegetation NDVI changes in these basins from 2000 to 2022, distinguishing between natural growth areas and anthropogenic impact areas. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2022, vegetation in the Dongting, Poyang, and Taihu Lake basins, including both anthropogenic impact areas and natural growth areas, exhibited a greening trend. Overall, compared to precipitation and solar radiation, the NDVI of vegetation in the three major lake basins was more sensitive to temperature. Vegetation growth in these basins exhibited a consistently positive sensitivity to temperature, whereas it predominantly showed a negative sensitivity to precipitation. Climate change has promoted an increase in vegetation NDVI across the three lake basins. In anthropogenic impact areas, human activities predominantly drove the changes in vegetation NDVI, with the effects being bidirectional. Specifically, in the Dongting and Poyang Lake basins, human activities mainly had a positive impact on vegetation NDVI, whereas in the Taihu Lake Basin, the impact was predominantly negative.