Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis

This study evaluated the practicability of the suicide rate reduction target set by the current national suicide prevention policy in Korea, the fifth Master Plan for Suicide Prevention (2023-2027). This policy aims to lower the suicide rate from 26/100,000 in 2021 to 18.2/100,000 by 2027.

We utilized monthly suicide statistics data from 2011 onwards. Using Bayesian regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we conducted interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the previous policy, the National Action Plan for Suicide Prevention (2018-2022), on suicide rates. We assumed this as the additional suicide reduction expected from the current policy. We generated point predictions and simulations for suicide rates from 2023 to 2027 using Bayesian regression and ARIMA models.

The interrupted time series analyses did not reveal a significant reduction in suicides attributable to the previous policy. Point predictions from the two models indicated that the suicide rate would remain approximately 24/100,000 in 2027. Almost all of the simulations of the 2027 suicide rate did not meet the policy target of 18.2/100,000.

The findings suggest that the Korean government's suicide rate reduction target for 2027 is likely unattainable based on current trends and the limited effectiveness of previous policies. The objectives of suicide prevention policies should be evidence-based, attainable, and accountable.