A novel method to assess spatio-temporal habitat availability for a generalist indicator species group in
Nivedita Varma Harisena1, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey1, Maarten J van Strien1
1Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems PLUS, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, ETH Zurich, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland.
Context:
Landscape changes can alter habitat availability for species over time. There can be a time-lagged response of species to such changes, leading to possible extinction debts. In human-modified landscapes, understanding these dynamics is critical to inform conservation actions and mitigate biodiversity loss.
Objectives:
This study examines temporal trajectories of habitat availability over 113 years from 1899 to 2012 in the Swiss Plateau and evaluates their relationship with current occurrences of an indicator generalist species group that inhabits mosaic agricultural landscapes.
Methods:
Time-series of resistance surfaces were derived from roads and buildings. Resistance kernels were then used to calculate the Amount of Habitat Available (AHA) metric across five maximum dispersal distances. Spatio-temporal patterns of AHA were analysed using multi-dimensional K-Means time-series clustering. The clusters were evaluated based on their overlap with species occurrences. The suitability of AHA to predict species presences was also determined. The results were compared with current best-practice approaches that use contemporary landscape data and fixed-shape moving-windows.
Results:
Ten AHA trajectories were identified, showing variable patterns of decline in AHA over time. Time-series clusters with higher historical AHA were associated significantly with greater contemporary species occurrences. The AHA in 1933 showed the strongest link to current species presences, highlighting a time-lagged response. The presented approach outperformed the current best-practice approaches.
Conclusions:
Historical trajectories of habitat availability are essential for understanding species occurrences and time-lagged responses to landscape changes. The presented approach is generic and effectively links historical dynamics to current biodiversity, supporting conservation planning in human-modified landscapes.
Supplementary Information:
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-025-02124-x.
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