A Nomogram Predicts the Risk Factors for Post-Traumatic Cerebral Infarction in Polytrauma Patients with Traumatic...

Area of Science:

• Neurology
• Trauma Surgery
• Critical Care Medicine

Background:

• Post-traumatic cerebral infarction (PTCI) is a severe complication in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and polytrauma.
• Early identification of patients at high risk for PTCI is critical for timely intervention and improved outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify independent risk factors for PTCI in polytrauma patients with TBI.
• To develop and validate a predictive model for PTCI risk.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 511 polytrauma patients with TBI.
• Univariable, Lasso, and multivariable logistic regression to identify independent risk factors.
• Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model using ROC, calibration curves, and DCA.

Main Results:

• Independent risk factors for PTCI included cerebral hernia, basilar skull fracture, platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), D-dimer, and albumin (all p < 0.05).
• The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive accuracy with an AUC of 0.90 in the prediction cohort and 0.87 in the validation cohort.
• The model showed excellent performance, discrimination, and clinical utility.

Conclusions:

• Cerebral hernia, basilar skull fracture, PLR, D-dimer, and albumin are significant independent risk factors for PTCI in TBI patients.
• The developed nomogram is a valuable tool for early identification of high-risk PTCI patients.
• This model can aid clinicians in risk stratification and timely management decisions.