Water environmental capacity of estuarine microplastics capped by species sensitivity threshold

Estuaries are biologically rich ecosystems and act as aggregation zones for microplastic (MP) during their transport from rivers to the sea, posing heightened ecological risks compared to other aquatic environments. However, limit criteria for MP discharge to guide risk management remain lacking. This study quantified the water environmental capacity (WEC) of estuarine MPs using species health-based microplastic concentration (MPC) thresholds. Classified MPs simulation employed probability density functions and shape factors to convert mass concentrations into particle counts during the flood season in the Yangtze River estuary. The 5 % species hazard concentration (HC₅) with two ecologically relevant metrics was selected as the MPC threshold by correcting the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves for polydispersity and biological accessibility of environmental MPs. Lastly, the dynamic WEC framework was established by linking MP simulations to MPC thresholds. MP aggregation hotspots were found in the intertidal zone and maximum turbidity zone in southern branch, which is akin to locating the 'shortest plank' in bucket effect. The average rescaled MPC in hotspots reached 4.77 × 10⁵particles/(d·m³), accounting for 14.38 % of the WEC safety threshold. This framework explored scientific basis for quantifying the MPs carrying capacity of estuarine ecosystems and allocation of plastic discharge rights.