Impact and Gender Differences in Intragenerational Mobility and Fertility Intentions in China

With the growing prevalence of dual-earner families in China, fertility decisions are increasingly influenced by experiences in the work domain. While previous research has explored the relationship between static occupational status and fertility intentions, it has largely overlooked how career development affects these dynamics. Changes in occupational status alter both the material resources available for childbearing and the balance between work and family life. Using diagonal reference models on pooled data from the Chinese General Social Survey, this study investigates the impact of intragenerational occupational mobility on fertility intentions. The findings reveal that this impact varies by parity and gender. Intragenerational upward mobility is positively associated with men's first birth intentions but negatively associated with women's first birth intentions. However, intragenerational downward mobility is negatively associated with first birth intentions for both men and women. For additional children, the impact of upward mobility is not significant, but the negative impact of downward mobility is still prominent. Overall, while upward mobility enhances fertility intentions for men by providing greater resources and stability, for women, the pursuit of career advancement often results in reduced fertility intentions. These findings highlight a gendered trade-off between professional success and family formation.