Predictive machine learning and multimodal data to develop highly sensitive, composite biomarkers of disease...

Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is a rare, inherited progressive movement disorder for which there is currently no cure. The field urgently requires more sensitive, objective, and clinically relevant biomarkers to enhance the evaluation of treatment efficacy in clinical trials and to speed up the process of drug discovery. This study pioneers the development of clinically relevant, multidomain, fully objective composite biomarkers of disease severity and progression, using multimodal neuroimaging and background data (i.e., demographic, disease history, genetics). Data from 31 individuals with FRDA and 31 controls from a longitudinal multimodal natural history study IMAGE-FRDA, were included. Using an elasticnet predictive machine learning (ML) regression model, we derived a weighted combination of background, structural MRI, diffusion MRI, and quantitative susceptibility imaging (QSM) measures that predicted Friedreich ataxia rating scale (FARS) with high accuracy (R² = 0.79, root mean square error (RMSE) = 13.19). This composite also exhibited strong sensitivity to disease progression over two years (Cohen's d = 1.12), outperforming the sensitivity of the FARS score alone (d = 0.88). The approach was validated using the Scale for the assessment and rating of ataxia (SARA), demonstrating the potential and robustness of ML-derived composites to surpass individual biomarkers and act as complementary or surrogate markers of disease severity and progression. However, further validation, refinement, and the integration of additional data modalities will open up new opportunities for translating these biomarkers into clinical practice and clinical trials for FRDA, as well as other rare neurodegenerative diseases.