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Global Epidemiology, Burden, and Future Projections of Decubitus Ulcers: A Comprehensive Analysis From 1990 to 2050
Yungang Hu1,2, Yaling Zhao2, Huimin Wu2
1Department of Burns and Plastic Surgery, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Abstract:
Decubitus ulcers are common, hard-to-heal skin ulcers characterised by a high incidence, rapid progression, and a tendency to recur after healing. However, data on the burden and trends of this disease are limited. This study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of decubitus ulcers from 1990 to 2021, and predict their future trends from 2022 to 2050. We retrieved decubitus ulcers data from 204 countries and regions worldwide from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 between 1990 and 2021. We analysed the prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardised rates (ASRs), and estimated annual percentage changes at the global, regional, and national levels. Additionally, we examined global trends by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Finally, we used the autoregressive integrated moving average and exponential smoothing models to predict future trends of the disease burden from 2022 to 2050. Globally, from 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence of cases, deaths, and DALYs associated with decubitus ulcers revealed an increasing trend, while the corresponding ASRs exhibited a decreasing trend. Among all age groups, the elderly had the highest incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates. Regionally, high-income North America had the highest age-standardised incidence and prevalence rates; Southern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate; and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised DALY rate. In terms of SDI, regions with a higher SDI had the highest age-standardised incidence and prevalence rates, while their mortality rates and DALYs were lower. By integrating the prediction results from the two models, we found that the incidence and prevalence of cases, deaths, and DALYs for both sexes will continue to increase from 2022 to 2050. However, the ASRs are expected to remain relatively stable in the future.
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