Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Differentiating Glioblastoma From Solitary Brain Metastasis Using Radiomics

To develop and validate interpretable machine learning models for differentiating glioblastoma (GB) from solitary brain metastasis (SBM) using radiomics features from contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI (CE-T1WI), and to compare the impact of low-order and high-order features on model performance.

A cohort of 434 patients with histopathologically confirmed GB (226 patients) and SBM (208 patients) was retrospectively analyzed. Radiomic features were derived from CE-T1WI, with feature selection conducted through minimum redundancy maximum relevance and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Machine learning models, including GradientBoost and lightGBM (LGBM), were trained using low-order and high-order features. The performance of the models was assessed through receiver operating characteristic analysis and computation of the area under the curve, along with other indicators, including accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity. SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis is used to measure the influence of each feature on the model's predictions.

The performances of various machine learning models on both the training and validation datasets were notably different. For the training group, the LGBM, CatBoost, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and GradientBoost models achieved the highest AUC scores, all exceeding 0.9, demonstrating strong discriminative power. The LGBM model exhibited the best stability, with a minimal AUC difference of only 0.005 between the training and test sets, suggesting strong generalizability. Among the validation group results, the GradientBoost classifier achieved the maximum AUC of 0.927, closely followed by random forest at 0.925. GradientBoost also demonstrated high sensitivity (0.911) and negative predictive value (NPV, 0.889), effectively identifying true positives. The LGBM model showed the highest test accuracy (86.2%) and performed excellently in terms of sensitivity (0.911), NPV (0.895), and positive predictive value (PPV, 0.837). The models utilizing high-order features outperformed those based on low-order features in all the metrics. SHAP analysis further enhances model interpretability, providing insights into feature importance and contributions to classification decisions.

Machine learning techniques based on radiomics can effectively distinguish GB from SBM, with gradient boosting tree-based models such as LGBMs demonstrating superior performance. High-order features significantly improve model accuracy and robustness. SHAP technology enhances the interpretability and transparency of models for distinguishing brain tumors, providing intuitive visualization of the contribution of radiomic features to classification.