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  11. Integrating Epidemiological And Economic Models To Estimate The Cost Of Simulated Foot-and-mouth Disease Outbreaks In Brazil

Integrating epidemiological and economic models to estimate the cost of simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brazil

Nicolas C Cardenas1, Taís C de Menezes2, Amanda M Countryman2

  • 1Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.

Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|May 29, 2025

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Controlling foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks requires strategic resource allocation. Enhanced depopulation and vaccination capacity early in an outbreak minimizes long-term economic impacts and speeds eradication.

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary epidemiology
  • Economic analysis of disease control
  • Animal health economics

Background:

  • Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses significant economic threats to livestock industries globally.
  • Outbreaks cause substantial losses through animal mortality, reduced production, and trade restrictions.
  • Effective control strategies are crucial to mitigate economic damage.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the direct cost-effectiveness of different FMD control and eradication scenarios.
  • To model hypothetical FMD outbreaks in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
  • To compare strategies including depopulation and emergency vaccination.

Main Methods:

  • Simulated FMD outbreaks using a multi-host, single-pathogen Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model.
Keywords:
Animal healthCostDisease economicsFMD

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  • Incorporated species-specific transmission, within-farm dynamics, and spatial factors.
  • Evaluated economic costs of depopulation, vaccination, testing, and movement restrictions.

    • Main Results:

    • Predicted costs for FMD reintroduction ranged from $977,128 to $52,275,811.
    • Depopulation was the most expensive control measure, followed by traffic control points and vaccination.
    • Higher rates of depopulation, especially combined with vaccination, proved most effective for long-term economic impact reduction.

    Conclusions:

    • Increased capacity for depopulation and vaccination during early outbreak stages is cost-effective.
    • Strategic resource allocation minimizes overall economic impact and accelerates FMD eradication.
    • Proactive investment in control measures is vital for safeguarding the livestock sector.
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