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Visualizing Methane-Cycling Microbial Dynamics in Coastal Wetlands

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Climate warming increases global oceanic dimethyl sulfide emissions.

Sankirna D Joge^1,2, Karam Mansour^3,4, Rafel Simó⁵

¹Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune 411008, India.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|June 2, 2025

Summary

Oceanic dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions are projected to increase due to climate change, impacting aerosol formation. This contrasts with previous assessments, suggesting a greater future role for DMS in climate regulation.

Keywords:

biogeochemistry climate change dimethyl sulfide

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Area of Science:

* Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Science
* Biogeochemical Cycles
* Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions

Background:

* Oceanic dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the primary natural source of atmospheric sulfur.
* DMS oxidation products influence aerosol formation, cloud properties, and Earth's radiative budget.
* Current climate model projections for DMS emissions under global warming are uncertain and contradictory.

Purpose of the Study:

* To reduce uncertainty in climate model projections of DMS emissions.
* To simulate future seawater DMS concentrations using machine learning and CMIP6 data.
* To assess the changing relative importance of DMS in climate regulation.

Main Methods:

* Utilized machine-learning models trained on biome-resolved global DMS observations.
* Incorporated physico-chemical and biological predictors from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
* Simulated seawater DMS concentrations from 1850 to 2100.

Main Results:

* Machine learning models significantly reduced scatter in current DMS projection uncertainties.
* Globally averaged seawater DMS concentrations are predicted to decrease in the near future.
* Global DMS emissions are projected to increase due to rising sea surface temperatures and wind speeds, contradicting previous assessments.

Conclusions:

* Future increases in DMS emissions are expected due to climate change impacts on oceans.
* The relative contribution of DMS to sulfate aerosol formation and its cooling effect may increase.
* This highlights the critical need to accurately model DMS in climate change scenarios.