Spatial close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate dispersal parameters and barrier strength for mosquitoes

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Genetics
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods infer demographic parameters using genetic relatedness.
• CKMR is advantageous over traditional mark-release-recapture (MRR) by avoiding physical marking interference.
• Application of CKMR to mosquito dispersal, particularly for disease vectors like *Aedes aegypti*, requires further exploration.

Purpose of the Study:

• To extend CKMR methods for spatial structure and life history in insects, specifically mosquitoes.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of CKMR in estimating mosquito dispersal parameters using simulations.
• To compare CKMR with traditional MRR methods for mosquito dispersal studies.

Main Methods:

• Derived kinship probabilities for parent-offspring and full-sibling pairs in a spatial context, accommodating larval and adult stages.
• Utilized an individual-based model simulating *Aedes aegypti* life history on a 19x19 grid.
• Analyzed simulated data from 2,500 adult females sampled over three months using 25 traps.

Main Results:

• CKMR provided unbiased and precise estimates of mean dispersal distance for simulated mosquito populations.
• The method successfully estimated parameters of complex dispersal kernels, including daily staying probability and barrier strength (>0.5).
• CKMR demonstrated effectiveness in characterizing mosquito dispersal patterns, complementing MRR methods.

Conclusions:

• CKMR is a robust tool for estimating mosquito dispersal parameters, including mean distance and landscape effects.
• The genetic marking approach of CKMR overcomes limitations associated with physical marking in MRR.
• CKMR offers valuable insights into mosquito movement crucial for disease transmission and control strategies.