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Projected Increases in Climate Extremes Across Global Vertebrate Diversity Hotspots.
M van den Bosch1,2, J K Costanza3, R A Peek4
1Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
Global Change Biology
|June 4, 2025
Summary
Climate change will increase extreme weather events, threatening vulnerable vertebrate species globally. Tropical regions and understudied hotspots face the greatest risks, requiring urgent conservation action.
Area of Science:
- Climate change biology
- Conservation science
- Biodiversity research
Background:
- Climate change is intensifying global climate extremes, posing significant threats to biodiversity.
- The International Union for Conservation of Nature identifies vertebrates vulnerable to climate extremes, but future exposure is uncertain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future changes in extreme drought, heat, and precipitation frequencies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates.
- To assess these changes across 33 vertebrate diversity hotspots under various climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models.
- Analyzed projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
- Focused on 1634 terrestrial vertebrate species identified as vulnerable to climate extremes.
Main Results:
- Projected substantial increases in climate extreme exposure for vulnerable vertebrates between 1974-2014 and 2050-2090.
- Tropical regions are projected to experience the largest relative increases in extreme heat and drought.
- Hotspots with fewer known vulnerable species often face greater increases in climate extremes, indicating potential underestimation of vulnerability.
Conclusions:
- Climate change poses a growing threat to vertebrate biodiversity, particularly in tropical regions.
- Conservation assessments must integrate climate change projections to accurately identify and address species vulnerability.
- Further research is needed on the impact of climate extremes on tropical vertebrates, which may possess lower climate change tolerance.
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