Changes in land capability for agriculture under climate change in Wales

Land capability assessments are key models that can identify current and future capacity of land for agricultural production. However, assessments of land capability under climate change do not fully consider climate-soil-crop interactions, are produced at scales too coarse for decision making and exclude key end users. We tackle these gaps by co-developing a predictive fine-scale spatial assessment of Agricultural Land Classification in Wales for baseline climate (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed an increase in the proportion of land with better agricultural potential in 2020 (2010-2039) and 2050 (2040-2069) compared to the baseline, becoming more favourable for agriculture due to decreased soil wetness. However, by 2080 (2070-2099), there was a reduction in the proportion of higher grade and best and most versatile land for agriculture. During this period, an increase in accumulated temperature and decrease in rainfall during the growing season resulted in higher soil moisture deficits and increased risk of summer drought. We identified soil droughtiness as the most limiting factor for agricultural capability in 2080, resulting in a decrease in the best and most versatile land for agriculture (by 2 to 11% compared to the baseline). The transparency of the approach and prediction of land capabilities at local scale enabled effective policy implementation and decision making. The predicted future changes in land capability highlight that policy instruments used currently to protect high grade agricultural land should also consider the potential impacts of climate change.