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Warming accelerates global drought severity
Solomon H Gebrechorkos1,2, Justin Sheffield3, Sergio M Vicente-Serrano4
1School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. solomon.gebrechorkos@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
Global drought severity is increasing, with atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) significantly worsening drought conditions worldwide. This trend is expanding drought-affected areas and is expected to continue with future warming.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Earth Science
Background:
- Droughts are complex global hazards impacting environments and economies.
- Uncertainties exist in global drought trends and the role of atmospheric evaporative demand (AED).
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate global drought trends from 1901-2022.
- To quantify the impact of atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) on drought characteristics.
Main Methods:
- Development of high-resolution global drought datasets (1901-2022).
- Analysis of drought trends and the contribution of AED.
Main Results:
- A global increasing trend in drought severity was observed.
- AED increased global drought severity by an average of 40%.
- Drought-affected areas expanded by 74% (2018-2022) vs. 1981-2017, with AED contributing 58% of this increase.
Conclusions:
- AED plays an increasingly critical role in driving severe droughts.
- Both dry and wet regions are experiencing drying trends due to increased AED.
- This trend is projected to continue under future warming scenarios.
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