Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion

Area of Science:

• Marine Biology
• Climate Change Ecology
• Biodiversity Science

Background:

• Coral reefs face significant biodiversity loss due to climate change.
• Past coral range expansions suggest high-latitude areas could act as refugia.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the potential for high-latitude environments to serve as global coral refugia.
• To model coral distribution and range expansion under climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

• A dynamic metacommunity model was developed.
• The model incorporated temperature, photosynthetically available radiation, and pH.
• Four distinct, interacting coral assemblages were simulated.

Main Results:

• The model accurately reproduced observed coral distributions and declines in the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean.
• Simulations revealed a timescale mismatch: severe coral reef decline within 40-80 years, but expansion requires centuries.
• Large-scale coral refugia in higher latitudes are unlikely to emerge in time to counteract rapid climate change impacts.

Conclusions:

• High-latitude environments are unlikely to provide sufficient refugia for coral biodiversity in the near future.
• Urgent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is critical to mitigate coral reef decline.
• Mitigating nonthermal stressors is essential for coral survival in both tropical and high-latitude regions.