Current Forest Carbon Offset Buffer Pool Contributions Do Not Adequately Insure Against Disturbance-Driven Carbon...

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Ecology
• Forestry

Background:

• Nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) in forests can enhance the land carbon sink for climate mitigation.
• Durability of carbon storage in forests is threatened by climate risks and disturbances.
• Forest carbon offset protocols utilize buffer pools to insure against these risks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the adequacy of current forest carbon offset buffer pool allocations against observed disturbance regimes.
• To evaluate the alignment of existing buffer pool tools with current scientific data and models.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a tropical forest stand biomass model.
• Analyzed an extensive dataset from long-term tropical forest plots.
• Modeled various disturbance scenarios to test buffer pool sufficiency.

Main Results:

• Buffer pool requirements are influenced by forest age and disturbance regime.
• In most analyzed scenarios, current buffer pools are significantly smaller than scientifically indicated needs.
• Existing buffer pool tools underestimate the necessary insurance against forest disturbances.

Conclusions:

• Current buffer pool methodologies in forest carbon offset protocols are inadequate to cover disturbance risks.
• Urgent updates are needed for buffer pool tools and estimates to incorporate accurate disturbance regimes and climate change impacts.
• Rigorous, open scientific datasets are essential for the success of NbCS and reliable carbon storage.