Challenges in Incorporating Environmental Justice Constraints for Capacity Expansion Modeling.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Energy Systems Analysis
• Environmental Justice

Background:

• Capacity expansion models optimize decarbonization pathways but often neglect infrastructure-environment interactions and environmental justice.
• Modeling air pollutant emissions from future energy infrastructure presents significant challenges.
• Nuanced environmental justice dynamics are frequently overlooked in grid decarbonization planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To integrate capacity expansion modeling with pollutant dispersion tools to address environmental justice in grid decarbonization.
• To explore challenges in modeling emissions from future energy facilities.
• To develop a methodology for applying environmental justice constraints in equitable grid decarbonization pathways.

Main Methods:

• Paired an open-source capacity expansion model with pollutant dispersion modeling tools iteratively.
• Modeled decarbonization pathways and emissions (NOx, PM2.5) for proposed natural gas plants in California.
• Applied environmental justice constraints by restricting facilities with the greatest impacts or health burdens per TWh.

Main Results:

• Modeled California's decarbonization pathways aiming for zero grid-related CO2 emissions by 2046.
• Identified inequities persisted even after applying environmental justice constraints in capacity expansion modeling.
• Demonstrated the iterative approach's potential for refining environmental justice considerations.

Conclusions:

• The developed methodology provides a foundation for incorporating environmental justice constraints into equitable grid decarbonization.
• Persistent inequities highlight the complexity of achieving environmental justice through current modeling approaches.
• Further research is needed to refine constraints for more effective and equitable energy transition planning.