Community density patterns estimated by species distribution modeling: The case study of an insect virus interaction

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Entomology
• Virology

Background:

• The invasive potato moth Tecia solanivora poses a significant threat to potato crops.
• Phthorimaea operculella granulovirus (PhopGV) is a natural biological control agent for T. solanivora.
• Understanding their interaction is crucial for effective pest management in the Andes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the spatial interaction between T. solanivora and PhopGV in the northern Andes.
• To analyze host density and virus prevalence using pheromone trap data and infection status.
• To model the distribution of both species and assess correlations.

Main Methods:

• Collected 1206 pheromone trap data from 106 sites across Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela.
• Assessed virus prevalence at 15 sites in Ecuador and Colombia.
• Analyzed spatial structure of infection status at multiple scales (bag, room, field, locality, country).
• Utilized Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and species distribution models (SDMs) with bioclimatic variables.

Main Results:

• Locality and storage bag explained 8% and 26% of variance in infection status, respectively.
• Field vs. storeroom effects on infection varied significantly between localities.
• Predicted virus prevalence showed no significant correlation with predicted host density (R=-0.053) across the study's climatic range.
• The model predicted 26% of the total insect population to be infected.

Conclusions:

• Spatial factors at local scales significantly influence PhopGV infection status.
• Species distribution models offer a cost-effective method to analyze inter-species density correlations using non-sympatric data.
• This correlative approach can help understand ecological interactions without extensive new sampling, while acknowledging limitations in inferring causality.