A murder in Austin Texas: A case report featuring evaluation given activity level propositions

This report discusses the analysis of the evidence given activity level propositions for a murder case in Austin, Texas. The testimony in this case has been the subject of a complaint to the Texas Forensic Science Commission and a subsequent report. A Bayes' net is constructed for the propositions H_p: A took W's bike from the scene of the murder to an alley where her Jeep Grand Cherokee was parked and then threw the bike into some bushes. H_a: Somebody other than A took W's bike from the apartment, rode it, and disposed of it in some bushes. A has never had any contact with W's bike. Based on published data and explicitly stated subjective probability assignments, the likelihood ratio is about 1300 in favor of H_p. This analysis supports that the original testimony given in rebuttal was correct.