Global burden of pancreatitis among individuals aged 15-39 years: a systematic analysis from the 2021 GBD study

Pancreatitis represents a significant global public health challenge, yet there is a lack of comprehensive analyses focusing on the burden of pancreatitis and its long-term trends among young individuals aged 15-39 years.

This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) database to analyze the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with pancreatitis in the 15-39 age group from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends in disease burden were assessed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), with point estimates and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) reported.

Between 1990 and 2021, the global number of cases related to pancreatitis-including prevalence, incidence, DALYs, and deaths-substantially increased in the 15-39 age group. However, age-standardized rates for prevalence, incidence, DALYs, and mortality showed a declining trend. Gender-specific analysis revealed that females had lower prevalence and incidence rates compared to males. Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-based subgroup analysis indicated that low-SDI regions experienced the largest increases in DALYs and deaths, while high-SDI regions showed the most significant declines in age-standardized DALYs and mortality rates. Geographically, East Asia demonstrated the largest decrease in the burden of pancreatitis, whereas Western Sub-Saharan Africa exhibited the highest increases in case numbers and deaths. Age-stratified analysis showed that individuals aged 35-39 years had the greatest increases in case numbers and disease burden, despite experiencing the most notable decline in incidence rates. Conversely, the 15-19 age group exhibited reductions in disease burden and mortality rates.

This study highlights that, while the global number of pancreatitis cases among young individuals aged 15-39 has risen from 1990 to 2021, the overall disease burden has declined, particularly in high-income regions. In contrast, the disease burden in low-income regions continues to rise.