Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery

Area of Science:

• Atmospheric Chemistry
• Environmental Science
• Aerospace Engineering

Background:

• Stratospheric ozone layer is slowly recovering from chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) impacts.
• Global-mean ozone levels remain 2% below pre-CFC depletion levels.
• The growing space launch industry poses a potential threat to ozone recovery.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of projected rocket launches on the stratospheric ozone layer.
• To quantify potential ozone depletion under different launch scenarios.
• To evaluate the sustainability of the growing launch industry concerning ozone protection.

Main Methods:

• Modeling two future rocket launch scenarios: 'ambitious' (2040 launches/year) and 'conservative' (884 launches/year).
• Analyzing ozone depletion in total column and Antarctic springtime.
• Identifying key emission components driving ozone loss, including chlorine and black carbon.

Main Results:

• The 'ambitious' scenario predicts a -0.29% annual-mean, near-global total column ozone depletion by 2030, with a 3.9% decrease in Antarctic springtime ozone.
• The 'conservative' scenario projects a -0.17% annual, near-global ozone depletion.
• Current licensing rates suggest the conservative scenario may be surpassed before 2030.
• Chlorine from propellants and black carbon emissions are the primary drivers of ozone loss.

Conclusions:

• Frequent rocket launches can significantly thin the ozone layer and delay its recovery.
• The projected growth of the space launch industry requires immediate attention for sustainable development.
• Balancing the expansion of the launch industry with effective ozone protection measures is crucial.