Loneliness as a Risk Factor for Time to Care Home Entry for Older Adults Receiving Community Care

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Public Health
• Social Care Research

Background:

• International long-term care cost containment focuses on personal care.
• Reduced social participation services may increase demand for care facilities.
• Existing research on loneliness and care entry under-represents high-need individuals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the impact of loneliness on care home entry using administrative data.
• To analyze time to care home entry for individuals receiving care.
• To identify loneliness as a modifiable risk factor for long-term care placement.

Main Methods:

• Utilized administrative data from 1,101 individuals in London.
• Extracted loneliness from free-text notes using a large language model.
• Employed logistic regression and competing risks survival models to assess time to care home entry.

Main Results:

• Loneliness showed an odds ratio of 1.45 (logistic regression) and hazard ratios of 1.32-1.39 (survival models) for care home entry.
• Lonely individuals in the highest risk group entered care homes a median of 9 months earlier.
• The impact of loneliness on care home entry is comparable to factors like gender or ethnicity.

Conclusions:

• Loneliness is a significant, modifiable risk factor for care home entry, particularly for high-need individuals.
• Service reductions for social participation may exacerbate loneliness and increase care home demand.
• Policymakers should consider the impact of social services on delaying long-term care placement.