Fire Smoke Elevated the Carbonaceous PM_2.5 Concentration and Mortality Burden in the Contiguous U.S. and Southern...

Despite emerging evidence on the health impacts of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) from wildland fire smoke, the specific effects of PM_2.5 composition on health outcomes remain uncertain. We developed a three-level, chemical transport model-based framework to estimate daily full-coverage concentrations of smoke-derived carbonaceous PM_2.5, specifically organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC), at a 1 × 1 km² spatial resolution from 2002 to 2019 across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Southern Canada (SC). A 10-fold random cross-validation confirmed robust performance, with daily R² = 0.77 (OC) and 0.80 (EC) in the smoke-off scenario and 0.67 (OC) and 0.71 (EC) in the smoke-on scenario, and exceeded 0.90 at the monthly scale after residual adjustment. Modeling results indicated that increases in wildland fire smoke have offset approximately one-third of the improvements in background air quality. In recent years, wildland fire smoke has become more frequent and carbonaceous PM_2.5 concentrations have intensified, especially in the Western CONUS and Southwestern Canada. Wildfire season is also starting earlier and lengthens throughout the year, leading to more population being exposed. We estimated that long-term exposure to fire smoke carbonaceous PM_2.5 is responsible for approximately 7455 and 259 non-accidental deaths annually in the CONUS and SC, respectively, with associated annual monetized damage of 68.3 billion USD for the CONUS and 1.9 billion CAD for SC. The Southeastern CONUS, where prescribed fires are prevalent, contributed most to these health impacts and monetized damages. Our findings offer critical insights to inform policy development and assess future health burdens associated with fire smoke exposure.