Suitable Planting Area Prediction for Two Arnebia Species: An Analysis Based on Habitat and Phytochemical Suitability

The distribution of suitable habitats for medicinal plants is affected by climate, soil, land use, and other factors. Arnebiae Radix, an important traditional Chinese medicinal resource in Xinjiang, includes Arnebia euchroma (Royle) I. M. Johnst. and Arnebia guttata Bunge and is at risk of over-exploitation. This study predicted suitable planting areas by integrating habitat and phytochemical suitability using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The AUC values for A. euchroma and A. guttata were 0.977 and 0.952, with TSS values of 0.829 and 0.725, respectively, validating the high accuracy of the prediction model. Under the current scenario, the areas of suitable habitats for A. euchroma and A. guttata were 108,914 and 176,445 km², mainly distributed along the main mountains in Xinjiang. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat area of A. euchroma increased by 11-18%, except in the ssp126-2090s scenario, while the suitable habitat area of A. guttata area decreased by 3-18%. Both species were influenced by land use/land cover and soil available nitrogen content; additionally, A. euchroma was affected by the precipitation in the driest month, and A. guttata by the mean diurnal range. The content of secondary metabolites was positively correlated with habitat suitability, with soil factors contributing 35.25% to the total secondary metabolite content. Their suitable habitats predominantly occur in grasslands (42-82%). As habitat and phytochemical suitability distributions aligned, the eastern and western sides of the northern Kunlun Mountain Pass emerged as key areas for cultivation. This research can provide a scientific foundation for selecting optimal planting regions for the two Arnebia species.