Prediction and Screening of Lead-Free Double Perovskite Photovoltaic Materials Based on Machine Learning

The search for stable, lead-free perovskite materials is critical for developing efficient and environmentally friendly energy solutions. In this study, machine learning methods were applied to predict the bandgap and formation energy of double perovskites, aiming to identify promising photovoltaic candidates. A dataset of 1053 double perovskites was extracted from the Materials Project database, with 50 feature descriptors generated. Feature selection was carried out using Pearson correlation and mRMR methods, and 23 key features for bandgap prediction and 18 key features for formation energy prediction were determined. Four algorithms, including gradient-boosting regression (GBR), random forest regression (RFR), LightGBM, and XGBoost, were evaluated, with XGBoost demonstrating the best performance (R² = 0.934 for bandgap, R² = 0.959 for formation energy; MAE = 0.211 eV and 0.013 eV/atom). The SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analysis revealed that the X-site electron affinity positively influences the bandgap, while the B″-site first and third ionization energies exhibit strong negative effects. Formation energy is primarily governed by the X-site first ionization energy and the electronegativities of the B' and B″ sites. To identify optimal photovoltaic materials, 4573 charge-neutral double perovskites were generated via elemental substitution, with 2054 structurally stable candidates selected using tolerance and octahedral factors. The XGBoost model predicted bandgaps, yielding 99 lead-free double perovskites with ideal bandgaps (1.3~1.4 eV). Among them, four candidates are known compounds according to the Materials Project database, namely Ca₂NbFeO₆, Ca₂FeTaO₆, La₂CrFeO₆, and Cs₂YAgBr₆, while the remaining 95 candidate perovskites are unknown compounds. Notably, X-site elements (Se, S, O, C) and B″-site elements (Pd, Ir, Fe, Ta, Pt, Cu) favor narrow bandgap formation. These findings provide valuable guidance for designing high-performance, non-toxic photovoltaic materials.