Safety risk assessment for intersection rear-end conflicts based on collision risk force indicator

Area of Science:

• Traffic Safety Engineering
• Road User Behavior Analysis
• Accident Risk Assessment

Background:

• Rear-end conflicts are a significant cause of road accidents.
• Existing methods for assessing rear-end conflict risk have limitations.
• Understanding the interplay of driver, vehicle, and environmental factors is crucial for improving road safety.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel collision risk force indicator for assessing rear-end conflict risk.
• To develop a calibration method for the indicator using driver attributes, vehicle features, and environmental factors.
• To validate the indicator's predictive accuracy for annual average accident frequency.

Main Methods:

• Constructed a collision risk force indicator based on road user safety field theory.
• Analyzed driver attributes, vehicle features, and road environmental factors influencing risk.
• Calibrated the indicator using historical accident data and the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) model.
• Applied the calibrated indicator to vehicle trajectory data from Guilin City intersections.

Main Results:

• The collision risk force indicator accurately predicted the annual frequency of rear-end accidents.
• Predicted accident frequencies aligned with the 95% Poisson confidence interval of actual accidents.
• The calibrated indicator proved effective in evaluating intersection safety risks for rear-end conflicts.

Conclusions:

• The novel collision risk force indicator provides a reliable, non-accident-based method for assessing rear-end conflict safety.
• The method offers a valuable tool for traffic safety management and proactive risk mitigation.
• Further application of this indicator can enhance the safety of road intersections globally.