Global and Country-Level Analysis of Liver Cancer: Disease Burden and Recent Trends

Liver cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer globally and the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality, with more than three-quarters of a million deaths. This has presented a significant challenge and imposed considerable strain on global public health systems. Therefore, evaluating the updated global burden of liver cancer and its recent trends in incidence and mortality is highly important, as it provides valuable insights for shaping public health policies and improving clinical practices.

The data in our article were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), which is available at https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ . In this study, liver cancer mortality and incidence were estimated via the cause of death ensemble (CODEm) model for every combination of sex, age, location, and year. The incidence was modelled with DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. A linear regression model was employed to explore the temporal trend of these rates, formulated as y = α + βx + ε, where x represents the calendar year and y signifies the natural logarithm of the rate. For both incidence and mortality, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was computed via the formula 100 × (e^β - 1), accompanied by a 95% confidence interval (CI).

First, 529,000 cases were newly diagnosed, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 6.15 per 100,000 people. In terms of etiology, the incidence of liver cancer caused by metabolic factors has tended to increase. Additionally, the incidence of liver cancer was greater in males and older populations. Several specific regions presented liver cancer burdens that overwhelmingly surpassed the expected age-standardized rates (ASRs) each year from 1990 to 2021, regardless of their respective sociodemographic index (SDI) scores.

Our findings reveal that liver cancer continues to pose a significant public health challenge. These findings suggest that targeted interventions are needed to address both the infectious and non-infectious drivers of liver cancer in different socioeconomic settings. Hence, continued efforts in prevention through vaccination, antiviral therapies, and strategies to combat metabolic diseases are crucial for reducing the global burden of liver cancer in the coming decades.